New RGA research examining U.S. cancer mortality and incidence trends reveals a shifting landscape. While overall cancer mortality has declined significantly during the past two decades, deeper analysis shows slowing mortality improvements, rising incidence among younger adults, and widening complexity in risk drivers.
Paul is 42 and appears healthy. Cancer is not something routinely screened for at his age when there are no apparent risk factors.
When he develops recurring gastrointestinal symptoms along with fatigue and mild discomfort, he attributes it to stress and a recent reliance on fast-food lunches. The symptoms persist, and his doctor orders follow-up tests.
The diagnosis shocks Paul: advanced-stage colorectal cancer.
Cases like Paul’s reflect a growing pattern highlighted in RGA’s latest research. This new analysis, drawing on U.S. mortality data from 1999–2025 and incidence data from 2000–2023, shows that the long-standing narrative of steady cancer progress is evolving.
At a high level, the findings confirm meaningful improvement. While cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S., mortality has declined significantly over time due to advances in prevention, detection, and treatment. But a deeper story emerges when the data is segmented by age, cancer site, and birth cohort.
This article explores those findings and examines the implications for insurers navigating an evolving cancer landscape.
Overall cancer mortality trends remain encouraging. Between 2000 and 2025, cancer mortality rates declined substantially for both males and females.
However, the research reveals that this progress is becoming less uniform:
This divergence is central to the study’s findings. Rising incidence does not always mean worsening outcomes, but when paired with slowing mortality gains, it warrants further investigation and signals emerging risk.
The clearest signal in the research is the growing importance of early-onset cancers. Incidence among younger adults has increased significantly across multiple cancer types, outpacing overall population trends.
Colorectal cancer stands out. Both incidence – including later stage – and mortality have been rising for many years in adults aged 25–44. Breast cancer shows rising incidence, including more cancers being detected at advanced stages, as well as continued but slowing mortality improvement.
Together, these trends suggest that cancer risk is shifting among younger populations.
A key insight from the research is that cancer trends cannot be interpreted as a single narrative. For example:
These contrasting patterns highlight why incidence and mortality must be evaluated together to understand the underlying disease burden.
It is clear: Cancer incidence and mortality trends vary considerably by age group and for different types of cancers. Rather than a single cancer narrative, the research reveals multiple stories unfolding across different demographics.
RGA’s study points to a layered set of drivers rather than a single cause.
Cohort effects are particularly important. Individuals born more recently, especially around 1970 or later, have experienced lower mortality improvements, with stronger birth cohort effects seen in colorectal cancer.
At the same time:
No single factor explains the shift, but the cumulative effect is becoming more visible in the data.
Screening plays a dual role in shaping trends:
Recent guideline changes – for example, lowering recommended screening ages for colorectal and breast cancers – reflect recognition of the evolving risk landscape. Yet gaps remain:
These gaps may contribute to later-stage diagnoses, particularly among younger adults.
The findings point to a more dynamic and evolving cancer risk landscape.
The broad trend remains positive: Cancer mortality continues to decline. Yet beneath that headline, the story is becoming more complex. Rising early-onset cancer incidence, slowing mortality improvements among younger adults, and shifting risk factors are reshaping the cancer landscape, emphasizing the need for continued monitoring and thoughtful assessment.
For insurers, understanding how these trends and their underlying drivers interact and evolve will be critical to anticipating future risk.
Read the full study to explore the data, drivers, and implications in more detail, and contact RGA to explore a partnership that puts these insights into action.
