Canada is warming at twice the global average. While heat-related mortality is projected to rise, milder winters are expected to reduce cold-related mortality, resulting in a modest net mortality effect nationally by 2050. Wildfire-related air pollution represents the most significant emerging health threat.
Canada’s geography, northern latitude, and cool, temperate climate shape its climate-related risk profile. The country has a population of 41.6 million, with 19.5% aged 65 or older – a group particularly vulnerable to temperature extremes. Canada is warming at approximately twice the global mean rate, with Northeastern Canada warming at 0.75°C–1.2°C per decade over the past 30 years, compared to the global average of 0.18°C.
Under the SSP2-4.5 “middle-of-the-road” emissions scenario, global warming of roughly 2.7°C by 2100 is expected. For Canada, this scenario suggests only a modest overall impact on temperature-related mortality by midcentury, although regional differences remain significant. Canada’s rapidly aging population also increases long-term vulnerability to climate-related health risks.
Table 1 summarizes how the physical risks of climate change that we can estimate might impact Canadian mortality by 2050. These results do not include the effect of population aging; thus, they reflect the impact of physical risks on the overall mortality rate of the population – assuming its demographic profile remains unchanged. We are unable to quantify the potential change in relation to the impact of food insecurity, which we might expect to increase annual population deaths.
For a breakdown of how these figures were derived, read the complete paper.
Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, severe, and widespread. In 2021, British Columbia experienced a historic heatwave, with temperatures reaching 49.6°C and resulting in 619 deaths; 67% of those who died were aged 70 or older, many living without access to working air conditioning units or fans. Quebec recorded 106 heat-related deaths during a 2010 event, increasing daily mortality in greater Montreal by 33%.
Studies show that heat poses growing risks. In Ontario, each 5°C increase in summertime temperature between 1996 and 2010 was associated with a 2.5% increase in mortality. Across 12 Canadian cities (2000–2020), extreme heat events increased daily mortality risk by 4.2% for nonaccidental deaths, 3.8% for cardiovascular deaths, and 11.7% for respiratory deaths. Heat-related deaths have risen sharply, with two-thirds of heat-related deaths since 1981 occurring after 2016.
Cold historically accounts for a larger share of temperature-related mortality in Canada. Between 1985 and 2012, 4.46% of deaths were attributed to cold exposure, compared to 0.54% from heat. Warming winters are expected to reduce cold-related deaths.
Studies suggest modest national-level net effects by 2050. Projections range from a minimal net change (+0.1%) to a moderate increase (+4.35%), largely due to population aging. Reductions in cold-related mortality are expected to offset a significant portion – although not all – of rising heat-related mortality.
Wildfire activity is increasing and represents one of Canada’s most significant emerging mortality risks. The 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire burned 1.5 million acres, and 2023 wildfires emitted an estimated 647 megatons of carbon – nearly matching Canada’s total human-caused emissions that year. The 2025 season was the second-worst on record, burning more than 8.3 million hectares and forcing over 85,000 evacuations.
Air pollution-related mortality is substantial. In 2018, 17,400 deaths (6.1% of all deaths) were linked to PM2.5, ozone, and NO₂. Longterm PM2.5 exposure increases nonaccidental mortality by 11% per 10 µg/m³. Wildfire-specific PM2.5 accounted for ~0.5% of deaths in 2018, but 2023 levels suggest this figure could be several times higher in future high-smoke years. By 2050, wildfire-related PM2.5 may represent up to half of all particulate exposure.
Despite global trends, Canada has not shown a consistent increase in drought conditions. The Actuaries Climate Index indicates no increasing trend in consecutive dry days since 1962. Some prairie areas may experience increased summer dryness, but drought-related mortality is expected to remain negligible by 2050.
Food insecurity has risen nationally, affecting 25.5% of individuals by 2023. Severe food insecurity is associated with significantly higher premature mortality, including higher risks of infectious disease, unintentional injuries, and suicide. However, climate-driven agricultural decline is not expected to be a dominant factor in Canada by 2050; crop yields are projected to increase by 50% relative to 1998–2017.
Warming temperatures are expanding the habitat for ticks and mosquitoes. West Nile virus cases vary widely year-to-year, with five deaths recorded in 2022. Lyme disease cases continue to rise, with nearly 2,800 Ontario cases reported by October 2025. However, mortality remains extremely low, and antibiotics reduce risks of severe outcomes. Overall vector-borne disease mortality is projected to remain minimal through 2050.
Canada is becoming wetter on average, especially in northern regions. Extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in frequency, but historical flood-related mortality is low (<0.3%). Storm-related deaths remain negligible, although infrastructure damage and displacement may rise.
Arctic and Atlantic regions are experiencing cryosphere loss, including declining sea ice and warming permafrost. Localized coastal flooding risks may increase, but national-level mortality impacts from sea-level rise are expected to remain minimal by 2050.
Significant uncertainties remain in projecting long-term climate impacts. Climate models continue to evolve, and even small shifts in emissions pathways can produce different temperature and health outcomes. Doubling the estimated effects of each physical risk to reflect uncertainty would still result in a modest overall impact on mortality by 2050.
Most research isolates individual risks. In practice, risks can interact – for example, extreme heat coinciding with wildfire smoke or flooding leading to long-term mental health impacts. Mortality projections do not fully account for such combined effects.
Adaptation is an important variable. Air conditioning access, improved heat alert systems, infrastructure upgrades, and wildfire smoke mitigation could substantially reduce projected mortality. However, adaptation capacity varies across regions and socioeconomic groups.
This analysis focuses on direct mortality. Climate change will also influence morbidity, economic outcomes, displacement, and mental health – effects not quantified in the mortality projections. Long-term risks may increase if climate tipping points occur or if warming accelerates in the Arctic.
Canada will experience meaningful health impacts from climate change, but its northern geography and cooler climate reduce many of the most severe mortality risks seen elsewhere. Heat-related deaths and wildfire-related air pollution are the most significant concerns, while reductions in cold-related mortality, limited drought impacts, and low flood and vector-borne-disease mortality are expected to offset some risks.
Under SSP24.5, the net increase in mortality from physical climate risks is projected to be modest – approximately 0.8% by 2050 – although highly dependent on demographics, adaptation, and regional conditions.
RGA’s white paper on climate change in Canada is part of an ongoing commitment to helping insurers assess emerging risks. RGA experts combine global perspective with local knowledge to deliver actionable insights. Contact us to learn more.
