In this review, RGA's Chris Falkous assesses the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in the UK by 2050. The overall impact of quantifiable physical risks on mortality in the UK is anticipated to be a relatively modest reduction to mortality. However, some risks that are currently too uncertain to be quantified could have a materially negative impact on mortality.
RGA conducted a thorough review of the academic literature to assess the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in the UK in 2050 under two scenarios: a “middle of the road” emissions scenario and an “unconstrained growth and energy use” high-emissions scenario.
The key physical risks that could impact future mortality considered in this report are:
The paper also explores the potential impact associated with transition policies that could affect the economy or improve diet and active travel.
Table 1 summarizes how the physical risks of climate change that we are able to estimate might impact UK mortality by 2050. These results do not include the effect of population aging and, thus, reflect the impact of physical risks on the overall mortality rate of the population assuming its demographic profile remains unchanged. We are unable to quantify the potential change in relation to the impact of food insecurity, which we might expect to increase annual population deaths.
For a breakdown of how these figures were derived, read the complete paper.
Climate science has improved significantly over recent decades, but uncertainty remains.
We must acknowledge that some risks are too uncertain to quantify given the research currently available, and these could have a significant impact.
Most research about the impact of climate change on mortality does not allow for the adaptation we will likely see as society works to lessen the impact of these negative risks. An example of this would be the rollout of new malaria vaccines, which could reduce the impact of climate change on the spread of vector-borne malaria. Note that scope for adaptation against climate-related physical risks is generally greatest for higher socioeconomic groups.
This paper has concentrated on the direct mortality impacts of physical risks, but these risks could cause new-onset morbidity, and there could be negative mortality impacts from this in the future. An example would be the negative mental health consequences of extreme weather events for those who lose their homes or livelihoods and are displaced.
Even if the impact of climate change on future mortality were relatively modest for the UK, other countries may see greater impacts, which may lead to inward migration to the UK, placing a strain on public services such as healthcare.
We have considered emissions scenarios up to 2050. Over longer periods, the mortality impact could be greater, particularly in high-emission scenarios.
We have considered each physical risk in isolation, but reality is more complex, and interactions between risks increases uncertainty. There is also the risk of reaching climate tipping points, which could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of increased greenhouse gas emissions and warming.
Some of the actions that have led to climate change, such as deforestation, bring humans and animals closer into contact, which increases the risk of zoonotic disease transmission and future pandemics.
The relatively modest positive mortality impact from currently quantifiable physical risks may be counter to expectations of a negative impact on mortality. However, some risks that are currently too uncertain to be quantified could have a materially negative impact on mortality.
This modest impact from quantifiable physical risks in the UK outlined in this paper does not absolve society from taking action to limit greenhouse gas emissions and future climate change impacts. Climate change remains a significant risk factor and a priority issue that must be addressed through collective action at the governmental, corporate, and individual levels. The insurance industry has an opportunity to play a leadership role in combatting the climate crisis by promoting awareness, providing education, and inspiring, motivating, and incentivizing populations to modify behaviors in ways that will benefit their health as well as the planet’s.
RGA has made all reasonable efforts to ensure that the information provided in this publication is accurate at the time of inclusion and accepts no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions. The information provided is intended for general discussion and education purposes only and should not be relied upon for making specific decisions.
RGA's white paper on climate change in the UK is part of an ongoing commitment to helping insurers assess emerging risks. RGA experts combine global perspective with local knowledge to deliver actionable insights. Contact us to learn more.
