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  • Research and White Papers
  • August 2025

Updated: US Population All-Cause Mortality Report

Analysis by age and sex gives insight into reducing excess mortality

By
  • Brendon Lapham
  • Jason McKinley
  • Richard Russell
Skip to Authors and Experts
Crowded city street full of people with coats on
In Brief

RGA has created an online digital platform featuring an in-depth analysis of US population mortality in the wake of COVID-19. As a central component of that analysis, RGA's Global R&D team produced a report on all-cause excess mortality, which is summarized below.

View the full report.

Key takeaways

  • US population mortality is a key source of granular and current mortality experience. Emerging US results may provide leading insights into mortality trends for insured lives applicable to multiple markets and multiple functions within an insurer. These population trends might also signal the time when insurers can safely and reasonably redevelop new mortality bases from insured data.
  • Using an updated US population expected basis, we approximate that US excess mortality in 2024 was 0.4%, a significant reduction from the 3.2% estimated in 2023. Age and sex differences significantly impact US population excess mortality estimates.
  • The 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 flu seasons had diminished impacts on 2024 mortality, with peaks occurring in late 2023 and early 2025, respectively; this helped drive down overall excess mortality in 2024.

 

While we have observed persistent excess mortality in the US population following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, recent mortality trends suggest that all-cause mortality rates have continued to decrease substantially, with 2024 total excess mortality settling at just 0.4%. Minimal mortality burden from the past two flu seasons – impacting the 2024 calendar year – helped drive down excess mortality.

 

Age and sex differences significantly impact US population excess mortality estimates, which suggests the underlying drivers of persistent excess mortality vary based on these factors. To understand where population excess mortality may be headed in the medium term, a comprehensive evaluation of each major cause of death is essential. RGA will examine some of the trends in specific causes in subsequent reports.

To learn about the latest all-cause and by-cause report updates as they are published, sign up for RGA’s US mortality analysis email list.

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Meet the Authors & Experts

Brendon Lapham
Author
Brendon Lapham
Lead Data Scientist, Global Research and Development
Jason McKinley
Author
Jason McKinley
Vice President and Actuary, Global Research and Development
Richard Russell
Author
Richard Russell
Vice President, Biometric Research, Global Research and Development