Key takeaways
- US population mortality is a key source of granular and current mortality experience. Emerging US results may provide leading insights into mortality trends for insured lives applicable to multiple markets and multiple functions within an insurer. These population trends might also signal the time when insurers can safely and reasonably redevelop new mortality bases from insured data.
- Using an updated US population expected basis, we approximate that US excess mortality in 2024 was 0.4%, a significant reduction from the 3.2% estimated in 2023. Age and sex differences significantly impact US population excess mortality estimates.
- The 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 flu seasons had diminished impacts on 2024 mortality, with peaks occurring in late 2023 and early 2025, respectively; this helped drive down overall excess mortality in 2024.
Understanding excess death rates in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential to assessing its lingering burden. In this report, RGA has updated its analysis of US population data to understand how all-cause excess mortality settled in 2024, the fifth year of COVID-19.
While we have observed persistent excess mortality in the US population following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, recent mortality trends suggest that all-cause mortality rates have continued to decrease substantially, with 2024 total excess mortality settling at just 0.4%. Minimal mortality burden from the past two flu seasons – impacting the 2024 calendar year – helped drive down excess mortality.
Age and sex differences significantly impact US population excess mortality estimates, which suggests the underlying drivers of persistent excess mortality vary based on these factors. To understand where population excess mortality may be headed in the medium term, a comprehensive evaluation of each major cause of death is essential. RGA will examine some of the trends in specific causes in subsequent reports.
To learn about the latest all-cause and by-cause report updates as they are published, sign up for RGA’s US mortality analysis email list.